Lou Stagner posts some incredible stats on Twitter, usually with the hashtag ManageYourExpectations. It’s definitely data worth knowing, and there is value in knowing what the expected outcome of a situation is. If you know a scratch golfer averages 3 strokes to hole out from 90 yards in the fairway, it’s easier to not get as upset about making a bogey from that position (or not lamenting you did not make birdie from such an “easy” position). It’s always interesting to see this data, and I hope he uses his new position at Arccos to share more information.
Here is an example of one of the best thing he has posted:
What I like about this graphic is it shows the direct correlation between greens in regulation and scoring. If you hit 7 greens in regulation, you are likely going to shoot an 84. (My most recent 84 had 8 greens hit and 36 putts… so it’s not an exact science!). The message from the data is clear. If you want to shoot lower scores you need to hit more greens in regulation.
How much is one extra green worth? A quick glance through the data shows that each green is worth around 3 strokes a round. That number works as a guide to scoring, but seems to fall apart at the edges. By that math, a scratch golfer would average a 54 if they hit all 18 greens. An 18 handicap loses about 7 strokes when they hit 3 greens instead of 4.
As I dig deeper into this data, the GIR stuff starts to feel like telling someone the best way to shoot lower scores is to hit the ball less. It’s technically correct, and completely useless. Obviously the whole round is connected, so let's explore why 1 GIR more can lower your score by 3 strokes.
Process over results. I feel like I’ve said that before, but I think that’s the key factor at work here. If you took a par from a GIR and replaced it with a double bogey, it would still only be 2 strokes. Hitting one more green does not magically save you 3 strokes. When we look at the results only, the math does not make sense. When we look at the process necessary to hit more greens, we can start identifying the value.
Let’s take a step further back. What does a GIR even tell us? On a par four, it means we hit a good enough drive to have an opportunity to put our second shot on the green. Starting with the drive, we simply need to make sure the ball ends up in a place where we have a decent opportunity to put the ball on the green. The approach shot just needs to land on the green to count towards a GIR.
A process that sets up to hit more greens in regulation has a tangible result. The evidence of this simple fact is in the numbers above. Looking at my basic assumptions and habits, my chief takeaway is I need to take less risk trying to hit GREAT shots and I need to focus simply on hitting good shots. The only issue is how to balance this concept with the knowledge that hitting the ball farther also leads to lower scores.
There is a happy medium for me in that a well hit driver is going to give me the best opportunity to hit a green in regulation. My focus needs to be less on advancing the ball as far as possible, and more on making sure my driver is positioning me to hit the green with my next shot. There is a balance I need to find between SENDING IT and having a clear 2nd shot.
I’ve discussed my struggles on the par 3s I play. I do not believe this is a ball striking issue, but simply one of strategy. My goal for this season is to focus more on the process, and see if it leads to beneficial results. I routinely play the same course, and feel like I have an opportunity to commit to hitting specific clubs at specific targets on the par 3s. I am hoping enough repetition and focus will breed some confidence and bleed over to hitting more greens. I do not expect hitting more par 3s to save me three strokes a round, but I can hope!
Par 5s are a slightly different beast. I have the length to go after 3 of 4 par 5s in 2. My takeaway from this data is to take my medicine when I am in a recovery position off the tee box. If I do not have a good look at the green, I need to do what I can to hit the green in regulation. I am not sure how much else I need to change my strategy. I think my par 5 scoring will improve as I improve my dispersion with wedges. It is something I will track.
It’s important to remember this data is an average. A 5-7 handicap hitting 7 greens likely means they had a good look at the green on a majority of the par 4s. The 3 strokes saved are an indication that the player is doing multiple things well, even on holes where the green is missed. Honestly, it would be interesting to see a breakdown of where the 12 shots over par came from by handicap range.
My takeaway from this is simple, my focus on my long game needs to be things that will get the ball on the green. Tee shots are important, and I need to make sure my misses are playable. On approach shots and par 3s, my focus needs to be on hitting good shots, and make sure my misses give me an opportunity to get up and down.
If our goal is to shoot lower scores, and we know that hitting more greens directly correlates to lower scoring, we can better assess our games and what we need to work on. If my tee shot is not giving me consistent looks at the green, I can work on my driver. If my shots into the green require long irons and hybrids, I can either change tee boxes or chase speed. If my short irons are consistently missing the green, I can try to identify why and build better targeting strategies.
Greens in Regulation can be a great clarifying question at the end of the round. Did I have a good look at the green? Did I give myself a good chance to hit the green? I think if we view our scores through the GIR lens, we can eliminate some noise and start to address bigger faults.